One All

Despite a slow track, Smith's continued lack of form, being one bowler down (dammit Parnell!), being without a specialist spinner and a day five rainstorm literally looming on the horizon the Protea's rose to the occasion and handed out a lesson on what it takes to be number 1. Not for nothing have they held that rating fo the past 18 months.

There's lots that could be said, but to paraphrase cricinfo commentor SurlyCynic I think that the comments posted all over by Aussie fans pretty much sum it up:

Before the Test: "It doesn't matter what the pitch is like, Johnson will destroy you!"
After Day 1: "Pitch doctoring! This is the perfect anti-Mitch pitch! - slow and low, totally unlike the usual PE pitch which is... erm, slow and low."
After Day 2: "SA got lucky wickets. Aus will recover to make 400. AB is the world's most boring batsman to watch"
After Day 3: "Rain is forecast for day 5!"
After Day 4: "We were screwed by the umpiring decisions!"

Further commentary from me will wait until after the deciding Test at Newlands. It doesn't look like I'll be getting there in person, but you never know....

Capitulation

The last five years have been a golden age for South African cricket - clearly the best since readmission and certainly among the best of our cricketing history. In one week, on and off the field, we've seen the first glimmers of the future. It ain't pretty.

In the board room, CSA's troupe of administrators surrendered to the will of cricket's Big Three. They were bought for depressingly little. I wish I'd been wrong, but it was an easy call to make. With CSA on board, the BCCI and it's two brides got their way and everyone else began their new lives as official lower caste citizens in the cricketing world. The last hold outs, Pakistan and Sri Lanka, abstained. I wish them luck with their continued resistance and would like to apologise on behalf of all South Africa to their fans for our bungling bureaucrat's abject surrender. Time will tell whose path was the right one to choose.

With that last sad act the saga of the ICC restructuring came to an end and there was a gap for actual cricket to take center stage. The Proteas duly followed their board's lead by throwing in the towel against a red hot Australian team. Gaps and weaknesses that have been slowly appearing in Graeme's Smith's team were rapidly wrenched open and it wasn't long before the wheels came off completely. There are two Tests to go but there needs to be a whole lot of improvement if we're going to save the series from here. We got out of jail against Pakistan and India, but I don't know if we can hope for a third such result in a row.

In the board room, CSA say that they have been promised more fixtures for the national team. We will know more once the Big Three finalise their bilateral agreements. No prizes will be awarded for predicting who such agreements will be arranged to suit. Those of us in the lower caste of cricket playing nations will just have to wait and see how the scraps of the rich are divvied out.

On the field, the Proteas will have better days than last week. We might even pull off another miraculous series rescue against these rejuvenated Australians, and even if we don't we will still be ranked #1. The golden era will continue for a while; AB, Dale and the others will fight the dying of light for some time yet. But our first post-Kallis Test has shown us that nothing lasts forever, especially not sporting success.

The wheel always turns, but this time there is a difference: the hand spinning it is the BCCI, ECB and CA. Power in the board room might not directly project across the boundary, but control over the flow of money and the scheduling of fixtures sure doesn't hurt your teams chances. The Proteas of the 2010's could be the last team outside this Big Three to dominate Test cricket.

Here Come The Aussies

When I started writing here I thought it was going to be about cricket. Instead for a month it's been mostly ranting about ICC politics. This hasn't been helped by my relative lack of interest in the Ram Slam T20, the Big Bash or Sri Lanka v Bangladesh.

Well it's time to change that. Hot from thrashing the old enemy, Australia have landed in the Republic and they're here for the serious business of three Tests (plus some T20's that nobody will remember).

Let's see what the series will be all about...

~

Fast Bowlers

ht: The News

Because while Nathan Lyon will take some wickets and Robbie P will score some runs, in any Oz-SA series it's gotta be all about the quick men

The pre-series hype is naturally focused on Mitchell Johnson. He's fast, he's mean, he demolished the English and he has a good record against South Africa. He's broken Smith's hand twice and he's blooded Kallis. Pictures from OR Tambo suggest he may have even regrown his Ashes 'tache, but that may just have been shadows from the long haul flight.

Now Mitch is pretty fierce, but my money is on Ryan Harris as the danger man. He's class act whose career has been held back only by injury. Like Australia's version of Shane Bond, when Harris plays Australia look like a different team. Axeman Siddle will toil effectively and Mitch may or may not pitch, but a key battle of the series is between Harris' deadly swing and seam and the Protea's Kallis-less top order.

As always at home, if Steyn, Philander and Morkel stay fit enough to play all the games the Proteas will probably win. No doubt the Aussie "best attack in the world" bluster has got them suitably fired up. Who backs them up will be interesting too, which leads us to...

Jacques Kallis

ht: India Times

Or rather, the lack thereof.

This is the series where South Africans will first confront the post-Kallis future. Word seems to be that the strategy will be to move Faf to number four, to keep AB keeping at five (making him effectively the replacement all rounder for JK) and play one of McLaren or Parnell as a bowling all rounder at seven.

However you slice it the Proteas will be playing with one less batsman than for the last decade. At the same time this depleted lineup are up against the best bowling lineup they've faced for a while (Pakistan fans may disagree). The likes of Alviro Petersen, Faf du Plessis and arguably JP Duminy are never going to be more than average Test batters, so the seniors in Smith, Amla and de Villiers are going to need to collectively make up the extra man.

There's no way to replace a player like Kallis. How South Africa deal with his absence will be crucial to the teams fortunes for the next few years, starting now.

The Aussie Batsmen

ht: Zimbio

Because they've been pretty rubbish for a while now.

Clarke is world class and will get some runs, but the rest were poor at home against a wonky English attack. That Brad Haddin was the stand out in the lineup shows up how bad the rest were. BJ is a good keeper-batsman but he can't be saving the day every time around.

Of the rest, I've always rated Warner and Spud Smith. The rest are a mix of overrated senior pros and unproven rookies. Not too many remain from the lineup that was smoked for 47 at Newlands last time they were here, but this lot are going to need to be on top their game to avoid a similar fate.

Trash talk aside, the Proteas attack have been the scourge of all comers for years now. Whether or not the Aussie batsmen can scrape together enough runs for their bowlers to defend may well decide the series.

Tail Enders

ht: Cricket Dawn

Because it's going to be carnage at the top of the order.

This might not be everyone's pick, but my feeling is that tail end runs are often a vital difference between two sides with strong bowling attacks.

Both tails look reasonably strong. Johnson, Harris, Siddle and Lyon stack up pretty well against Peterson, Philander, Steyn and Morkel. With Watson at three Australia will probably have an extra batsman at seven, where the Proteas look like they'll make do with McLaren or Parnell. Still this one is anyone's race.

After the dust has settled and the shine has worn off the ball the runs those names can put on the board will make a big difference to the series result.

~

And finally...

Sledging

Premature bravado from the Aussie players in advance of the series has only been matched by Aussie fans on the forums rudely predicting a certain whitewash in favour of their team. As usual on cricinfo I'm genuinely puzzled by how such one eyed semi-literate rants get posted and my insightful and balanced comments are always moderated away.

Anyway. Posturing and online flame wars aside, it'll be a close series. The Proteas are starting favourites and I'm calling a 2-1 score line in their favour. Now to see if I can make a plan to get down to Newlands for at least some of the deciding Test...

Everyone Has A Price

The ICC revamp: everyone knows that it's all about the Benjamins. Much more money for the BCCI specifically. The BCCI have stated that they're totally ok with getting more money. Well thank goodness then, happy days.

The original idea seems to have been to get the three biggest kids in the playground to work out some rules for everyone. But that worked out about as well as throwing a dead cow to three sharks and asking them to arrange servings for all the other fish in the sea. Before long it became all about how the biggest shark could get the biggest chunk of meat.

To do that the BCCI needed CA and the ECB to cooperate. Their prices were easy to settle on - deep down both England and Australia feel entitled to more money and the power to arrange their own itinerary (i.e. avoid pesky tours against anyone they don't want to play). England got the extra promise of (maybe) hosting the ICC office instead of Dubai. And so then there were three.

To achieve this goal - loads more cash for the BCCI, and some more it's co-conspirators - a plan was created. No other sane Full Member board would vote for such a proposal, but the Big Three knew that each in turn would have it's price. The draft that they came up with contained carefully planned clauses aimed in specific directions. Along with some hard negotiating, each Full Member would fall.

For good measure the BCCI went all in and put their participation in ICC events on the table, conditional to the draft being approved. Nobody has yet dared to call their bluff.

Zimbabwe needed little more than a vague promise some money and the even vaguer carrot of bilateral tour agreements. They were never really in the game.

The price for West Indies and New Zealand were a series against India each (as an added bonus for the BCCI those matches came at South Africa's expense) and the promise of bilateral tour agreements. These boards folded on the blind, without even waiting to see how serious the bilateral promises were.

Bangladesh got the stick. The threat of a two-tier Test system which would inevitably set them up as the first Full Member relegated out of Tests was a gun to their heads. In due course this clause was dropped and the BCB came on board without much more fight.

That's where we stand today. South Africa, Sri Lanka and Pakistan are holding out for "more time" to "consult their boards". This can probably be read as "more time to negotiate for more concessions".

Cricket South Africa's price may well turn out to be eligibility for payouts from the new Test Cricket slush fund and a seat on the all-powerful ExCo. The slush fund is a monetary pittance compared to what's moving around in the Big Three's orbit, but the ExCo seat is a big one. Our bureaucrats have small minds and large egos, so I expect little argument.

I'm not certain of Sri Lanka's position. Like CSA, I think they will be bought by a little bit of money and a seemingly significant slice of political power. Maybe the promise of more games against opposition other than India. Perhaps the power to decide not to play Test cricket if they don't feel like it.

That leaves Pakistan. The PCB has little love for the BCCI and seem to be playing the hardest to get. But if the others fall into line the BCCI doesn't need them, and that's what I think will happen. An organised and united Pakistan would be the nearest rival to India in terms of population and potential cricket revenue so the BCCI will have no problem with shafting them however possible.

This hand of cards has just about wrapped up. No doubt the phone lines are alive to the sound of concessions, and bilateral tour agreements are being bought and sold like packets of crack on a street corner in downtown Baltimore. Once the dust settles the little people will all feel like they've protected their own interests, and the BCCI will get the fat paycheck that it feels that it deserves.

The Next Sobers

A lotta guys have, at one time or another, been branded the greatest thing since Garry Sobers. 'The next Sobers' or some variation on that is staple fare for over-excited commentators and press.

Let's take a look at how some of these fellows have fared...

Image from Sporting Life

Stuart Broad

"He's a wonderful player. There's a little bit of Sobers in him," gushed none other than that old card Geoff Boycott in July 2008, provoked to such an unusual level of excitement by Broad's tail-end batting and bowling in the second Test against South Africa.

Five years and 60-odd Tests later, 2010 runs at 24.21 and 238 wickets at 30.31 suggests that Stuey is rather more like the next Heath Streak.

Yuvraj Singh

After Yuvraj nailed a young Stuart Broad for six sixes in an over in the T20 World Cup, Pak batting legend Hanif Mohammed was moved to haul out the Sobers comparison. "For a moment, I thought that Sobers was batting,"said he.

Now I've always rated Yuvraj highly but with 1900 Test runs at 33.92 and 9 wickets at 60.77, Sobers he ain't. Even if we charitably look at his 8329 ODI runs (at 36.27) and 111 wickets (at 38.18) the best one can do is hail our boy Yuvvie as the next Aravinda de Silva.

Shaun Pollock

Now Polly was a fine bowling all rounder, no doubt about that. I hope to have more to say on the subject in due course. But in 2001 when the late Bob Woolmer wrote for cricinfo that "Shaun could easily become the next Garry Sobers" he was letting his enthusiasm get the better of him.

When Polly looks back on his stellar Test record of 3781 runs at 32.31 and 421 wickets at 23.11 even he will be force to agree that Woolmer should have hailed him as, at best, the next Richard Hadlee. No mean act to follow, but no Sobers.

Colin Miller

Now there's no doubt that Miller was a handy bits n pieces all rounder, but in 1998 when Agnew accused the Aussie press of "building Miller up to the realms of being the next Garry Sobers", there was surely an element of cognitive dissonance somewhere.

With 174 Test runs at 8.28 and 69 wickets at 26.15, Miller would have been better described as the next Roy Tattersall. Yeah, I had to look him up too. 

Nailing Our Colours To The Mast

Cricket South Africa has surprised everyone by coming out loudly against the ICC restructuring proposals put forward by India, Australia and England (henceforth referred to as The ExCo Members). CSA has habitually been an incompetent, divisive and bumbling organisation. But this time around the feeling must be that they're getting shafted regardless so they might as well go down with the ship, lashed to the wheel and firing all the cannons. Of course, cricket politics leaves ample room for a craven reversal of this position. But at least for now someone has spoken up.

The politics behind India's recently truncated tour to SA have become clear. This proposal needs seven votes of the ten ICC Full Members to pass at the Jan 28/29 board meeting. Let's tally up the votes.

Sri Lanka has always been India's satellite. Pakistan and Bangladesh might have little love for the Indians but are likely to vote with them anyway as part of the Asian bloc. That leaves the three ExCo members with six votes; five if Pakistan go rogue. Zimbabwe will vote with South Africa.

So the ExCo needs one or both of New Zealand and the West Indies to vote with them. Not so coincidentally, these two countries were the ones filling up the gaps in India's schedule created by cancelling matches against South Africa.

The lads at CSA expressed some baffled confusion at the BCCI's politicking around the tour. At the time I thought it was our own incompetent administrators trying to play hardball with a team way out of their league. Now the full and brutal truth has come to light.

SA Spin

Image from ESPNCricinfo

Cricinfo's estimable Firdose Moonda published an article on South Africa's spin talent.

Here's how I see it playing out in Tests.

Of those the Moonda mentions in the article, I'd play Robin Peterson nine times out of ten. South Africa always look more comfortable with a containing spinner. Robbie P isn't as much one of those as Harris was, but he can do the job. As a bowling allrounder Peterson's batting and fielding ability makes him my default available choice.

Then there's Imran Tahir. There's no doubting his talent and experience, but as we saw in the UAE, Tahir is only really useful at Test level when you get the combination of a turning track and an inept opposition batting lineup. I'd play him on those days, otherwise I think his best contribution to South African cricket would be to keep plying his trade in the SunFoil series, hoodwinking our young domestic batsmen. At least it'll mean that when they get a shot at an international game it won't be the first time they've seen a googly. When he retires let's get him and Harro set up in a spin bowling academy. His experience is valuable. Tahir is also a better bowler in limited overs formats than the long form, so I think he still has a role to play there.

That's it for the incumbents. Frankly I'd consider coaxing Harris out of retirement (he's only 35), or reaching out to Johan Botha again (only 31). But team politics have probably shut the door on both of those options. It's a pity, not the least because Botha might have made a better captain than AB de Villiers. But that's an article for another day.

For the youngsters, I'd back Simon Harmer as the next in line. He's young, he turns the ball, he can bat, and he already has a first class bowling average and strike rate comparable to any of Peterson, Tahir, Harris, Boje or Adams.

Eddie Leie might get a go ahead of Harmer. He's older but has a better first class strike rate and average. I haven't seen enough of him to make a call, but if he gets a chance I hope he takes it.

I don't rate any of Dane Piedt, Prenelan Subrayen, Aaron Phangiso or Werner Coetsee as international prospects. The first two are young so maybe they'll still surprise me.

The best young spinner in the country with Harmer and Leie might just be Dane van Niekerk. Now her I'd love to see enrolled in the Tahir & Harris SA Spin Academy and bowling in the SunFoil series, but I guess that's unlikely to ever happen. Keep an eye on her career, I reckon she'll dominate in our woman's team.